Why catastrophe bonds are gaining ground with institutional investors

Recent market volatility is a timely reminder of the value of investments that move independently of interest rates and broader market moves. As the search for resilient, uncorrelated returns intensifies across institutional portfolios, catastrophe bonds (Cat Bonds) are emerging as a structurally sound and increasingly attractive asset class. In an environment where traditional beta is less reliable and economic headwinds persist, Cat Bonds provide a compelling source of diversification and income for superannuation funds and other institutional investors.

Cat Bonds sit within the broader Insurance-Linked Securities (ILS) universe and are structured to transfer extreme weather and disaster risk from insurance companies to capital markets. Given their distinct link to specific catastrophic events rather than economic conditions, it's hardly surprising that cat bonds have a unique risk-return profile. One of their defining features is their detachment from macroeconomic factors. Whether equity markets rally or crash, the path of a hurricane remains independent-making Cat Bonds a rare example of true non-correlation.

Diversification and risk characteristics

Because natural catastrophes are uncorrelated to economic cycles, Cat Bonds provide portfolio-level tail risk mitigation and yield enhancement. Investors are compensated via insurance risk premiums, which have risen in recent years as climate risks and exposure levels increase.

Australian superannuation funds and high-net-worth investors have increased allocations to Cat Bonds and related ILS strategies, drawn by their diversifying potential and return profile. The combination of strong yields, climate thematics, and non-correlation to traditional asset classes has seen Cat Bonds become a valued alternative allocation.

Strong market backdrop

JANA identified the improving outlook for Cat Bonds in early 2023. Since then, performance has been strong, with the Swiss Re Cat Bond Index returning 19.69% in 2023 and 17.29% in 2024. Elevated yields (averaging 12-14%) and careful structuring, including higher attachment points, have helped insulate the market from rising catastrophe activity.

A constrained capital environment continues to support spreads, and with reinsurance demand increasing, we expect these conditions to persist through 2025.

Recent Events: Hurricanes and Wildfires

Assessing climate change, and the potential for more frequent and severe natural catastrophes, becomes a prudent part of assessing the Cat Bonds investment case. The past year has provided a good case study in the evolving risk backdrop for Cat Bonds. Hurricane Milton made landfall in Florida in October 2024. While initial estimates suggested US$100 billion in economic losses, the final insured loss was closer to US$30 billion, with Cat Bond impacts contained to just 1-3%.

In January 2025, superannuation funds were closely monitoring the potential fallout from the Los Angeles wildfires. As of April 2025, insured loss estimates have been revised upwards to between US$35 billion and US$50 billion, making them the most expensive wildfires in U.S. history. Despite this, most Cat Bond investors had limited direct exposure to wildfire risk, and portfolio structures have remained resilient.

California's insurance market continues to face challenges, with regulatory constraints and heightened climate risk leading many insurers and ILS managers to scale back wildfire exposure. These developments are reinforcing shifts in underwriting standards and structuring preferences across the market.

Still, California's insurance market remains under pressure. Regulatory constraints and rising climate risk have driven insurers and ILS managers to reassess their exposure, contributing to changes in underwriting standards and structuring preferences.

Structurally evolving instruments

The ILS market includes Cat Bonds, Collateralised Reinsurance, ILWs, and Sidecars. Cat Bonds remain the most transparent and liquid segment. Over the past two years, managers have favoured higher attachment points and loss-remote structures to reduce frequency risk. These structural changes have improved portfolio resilience and supported consistently positive returns.

Medium-term outlook

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season in North American is expected to be active, according to Colorado State University's April 3, 2025 forecast. The University team predicts 17 named storms, nine hurricanes, and four major hurricanes-above the 1991-2020 averages.

Climate change, inflation in construction costs, and urban development in high-risk regions continue to push premiums higher. These conditions, combined with capital scarcity, are supporting robust spreads in the ILS market.

Cat Bonds are also gaining ESG recognition. The EU's SFDR recognises them as supporting climate adaptation by pricing climate risk. This adds to their appeal for investors aligning portfolios with sustainability goals.

Risk management considerations

Despite strong recent returns, Cat Bonds are not without risk. Their low-frequency, high-severity profile requires disciplined sizing and diversification. JANA advises capping exposure at 5% of portfolio assets, or lower for new investors.

Liquidity also deserves scrutiny. Market stress during large events could challenge liquidity. Monitoring manager quality and fund terms is key.

Conclusion

Cat Bonds offer institutional investors a rare combination: strong yields, true diversification, and climate relevance. While near-term risks must be managed, the broader market context supports a strategic allocation.

For superannuation funds and other long-term asset owners, Cat Bonds provide a resilient, income-generating alternative that complements traditional risk assets in a world increasingly shaped by climate extremes.